A stunning poll first reported by Hotline on Call shows Republican Congressman Joseph Cao leading likely Democratic opponents in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District by up to twenty-five points. Cao currently represents the most Democratic district held by a Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+25. A common narrative is that Cao’s victory in 2008 was a fluke, spurred by the corruption indictments of his Democratic opponent.
Just one month ago, progressive website FireDogLake wrote that “it is very hard to imagine how [Cao] holds on in a general election this November against untainted Democratic opponents.”
And yet, conventional wisdom has been presented with a stinging rebuke.“I was surprised by it… I was one of those who believed that there is virtually no hope for reelection,” said Verne Kennedy, a Louisiana pollster and the President of Market Research Insight, which conducted the polling on behalf of the Republican campaign.