Brown’s Rebellion?
By HHR | January 5th, 2010 | Category: Opinion/Reviews |
By Dennis Sanders
In the run-up to the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to elect a replacement for the late Senator Ted Kennedy, all eyes were focused on the Democratic candidates with scant attention paid to Scott Brown the Republican nominee. After all, Massachusetts is the bluest of blue states and with no Republicans in the state delegation to Congress. This should be a cakewalk for the Democrats. And yet, Brown is nine points behind state attorney general Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee.
So what is causing Brown to do so well? Rassumsen says it boils down to excitement and maybe the health care overhaul which is based on a plan passed in Massachusetts in 2006:
Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.
In 2006, Massachusetts implemented its own statewide version of health care reform which has been cited as a model for the national plan. But just 32% of the state’s voters consider that reform a success. Thirty-six percent (36%) consider the plan a failure, and another 32% are not sure.
Despite the creation of a statewide health plan in part to address rising costs, most Massachusetts voters (54%) say cost is still the biggest problem with health care. Twenty-four percent (24%) cite a lack of universal coverage, while 11% say it’s the quality of care. Just three percent (3%) complain of the inconvenience of scheduling.
A cursory look at Brown’s website shows that he is playing it pretty safe, staying away from red meat issues and at least presenting himself as a moderate conservative. What is also impressive is his use of social media (Ning, Facebook, Twitter, etc.).
Will Brown score an upset? I still think it is a long shot, however, if all the action on Brown’s Twitter and Facebook accounts translates into real votes, we could be seeing a Republican Senator from Massachusetts for the first time since Edward Brooke in the late 1970s.
What was going to be a sleeper race suddenly got interesting
Dennis Sanders is a pastor living in Minneapolis, Minnesota. He has worked on centrist Republican issues for years, including stints as President of the Minnesota chapter of Log Cabin Republicans (a gay/lesbian advocacy group) and Republicans for Environmental Protection. Dennis blogs at NeoMugwump and happily lives with his partner Daniel and serves two cats, Morris and Felix.
HHR Updates: Scott Brown Within Nine in MA-Senate
[...] admin wrote a very interesting post today. Here’s a quick excerpt:In the run-up to the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to elect a replacement for the late Senator Ted Kennedy, all eyes were focused on the Democratic candidates with scant attention paid to Scott Brown the Republican … [...]