By Om  Pandya

Republicans running for office in New York City always have their work cut out for them. A city where two-thirds of the registered voters are Democrats and another quarter are independent, most Republican candidates struggle to raise even a fraction of what is needed to win a campaign.

Looking at the four districts that encompass Manhattan alone, two of these, the 12th and the 15th, voted 86% and 93% for Barack Obama in 2008. The other two, the 8th and the 14th districts, voted for Obama with less enthusiasm but still awarded him 74% and 78% of the vote respectively. Even with the anti-incumbent anger and the Republican surge in the polls, these numbers are proof enough that only a top-notch conservative candidate can get a House seat in New York.

Any other year, the chance of a Republican winning a Manhattan House seat would be miniscule. During presidential election years it is effectively zero, as droves of otherwise oblivious liberal voters come out to do their civic duty and vote a straight Democratic ballot. But the turnout during a non-presidential is markedly lower, which tends to favor Republicans. Also, without a Bush or Obama on the ballot, voters have no charismatic leaders to love or hate, and must make their own decisions on what is best for New York instead of voting as an acceptance or rejection of a presidential candidate.

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