More Blacks Lean Toward Obama

Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Illinois) rising poll numbers among white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are having an unexpected ripple effect: Some black voters are switching their allegiance from Sen. Hillary Clinton (D- new York) and lining up behind him too

The evidence of movement is most clear in South Carolina, site of the first Democratic primary where black votes figure to make a significant impact. There, four polls now show the liberal Illinois Democrat with a lead among black voters for the January 26, 2008 vote. As a result, the race in South Carolina has tightened, with some polls calling it a dead heat. A Rasmussen poll completed last week among South Carolina voters shows Sen. Obama now attracting 51% of the African-American vote, compared with 27% for Sen. Clinton. A month ago, the candidates were tied among South Carolina black voters. Along with other polls, Rasmussen shows the two candidates essentially tied among all South Carolina voters.

A Pew Research poll completed late last month shows Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama virtually tied among black voters nationwide; two months ago Sen. Clinton held a 12-point advantage. But an ABC News/Washington Post poll this week shows Sen. Clinton still with a commanding lead among African-Americans nationwide.

Some analysts say Sen. Clinton may do well because many of her black supporters are women and senior citizens who typically turn out for primaries in high numbers. "Hillary's voters are likely to vote," says Ron Lester, a Democratic pollster who has done extensive work polling African-Americans in the South. "That is going to help her hold her own."

The black vote is likely to be crucial in the cascade of primaries that follow Iowa and New Hampshire next year. Blacks make up almost half of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina and Georgia, one third in Virginia and a quarter in Tennessee. They also make up a fifth of Democratic primary voters in New York and 15% in Delaware and Ohio.

A big factor behind the rise in black support for Sen. Obama in South Carolina appears to be his popularity among white voters, though he is also expanding his outreach to black voters, and many of his views, especially his opposition to the Iraq war and support of social programs, resonate strongly with them. "A lot of African-Americans in the South have questions about whether a black candidate can be elected president," says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which studies black issues. "Picking someone who is going to have a good chance to win is very much on their minds. If Obama shows he can win and that white voters can vote for him, there will be a lot of African-Americans who will be lining up to support him."