NEW ORLEANS: NAGIN, LANDRIEU HEAD TO RUN-OFF.

In a surprise that defied recent independent polls, embattled Mayor Ray Nagin (D) scored a strong first-place finish with 38% in Saturday's non-partisan mayoral primary. Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D) was second with 29%, Audubon Nature Institute President Ron Forman (D) was next with 17%, followed by businessman Rob Couhig (R) at 10%, and eighteen others trailed far behind. While many displaced voters cast absentee ballots or drove back to the city to cast ballots in person, city residents from the wards less damaged by the post-Katrina flooding turned out in much higher numbers. Overall, approximately 40% of Big Easy voters cast ballots.

In addition to Nagin's first place win, the other surprises were Forman's poor performance and Couhig's surprisingly strong numbers. Forman -- a Republican who changed parties to make the race -- was initially seen as very viable, although he blew his opportunity by running a hyper-safe effort that merely made vague promises to do things like "dream big" if elected. Couhig, who was the most vocal conservative in the race, apparently scored his numbers at Forman's expense.

Nagin is also a former Republican businessman who switched parties when he ran for Mayor in 2002. Landrieu is a lifelong Dem, brother of US Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA), and son of former New Orleans Mayor Moon Landrieu. In a total reversal from his first election four years ago, Nagin ran strong with black voters but did poorly with whites. However, conservatives have traditionally disliked the Landrieu family -- but they also abandoned Nagin on Saturday. At this point, Nagin appears fairly well positioned to win a second term by a relatively competitive margin.